The war in Ukraine has entered its third year, with no end in sight to the devastating conflict. The Russian attack on Kharkiv has left the Ukrainian defenders desperate, as the much-hyped peace summit for Ukraine failed to engage the Global South. NATO is deploying nuclear weapons, while Putin threatens to use atomic strikes if NATO weapons target Russian territory. This war has caused significant death, suffering, and uncertainty. If you’ve been wondering about the Ukraine conflict—the most significant in Europe since World War II, and a key driver of rising food, energy, and commodity prices—you’re in the right place. So, grab your coffee, and let’s dive deep into the Russia-Ukraine War. By the end, you'll be well-informed on this complex issue.
Background
Over the centuries, Ukraine has been governed by various powers, including the Russian Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Poland, and Lithuania. After its first period of independence in 1917, Ukraine was incorporated into the Soviet Union, where it remained until gaining its second independence on August 24, 1991. This history includes the complex and painful period of Nazi occupation during World War II.
During the occupation, some Ukrainian nationalist groups aligned with the Nazis to resist Soviet rule. While this alignment was driven by factors such as severe repression under Soviet rule and the hope of achieving Ukrainian sovereignty, the motivations behind this alignment were diverse and involved dark actions.
Certain Ukrainian nationalist factions participated in Nazi atrocities against Polish, Jewish, Romani, and Russian communities. This aspect of history is crucial and cannot be overlooked. Some nationalist leaders like Stepan Bandera and groups like the OUN are still revered in Ukraine as freedom fighters. Still, it is important to remember that these actions represent only one facet of the complex motivations behind Ukrainian nationalism during this period. For more on this topic, refer to this article in the Smithsonian Magazine.
Vladimir Putin has used this historical alignment to frame any contemporary Ukrainian push for sovereignty as a continuation of Nazi ideology. The Holodomor, a severe famine in the early 1930s that led to the deaths of over 3.9 million Ukrainians, is often cited as a result of Soviet policies exacerbating a natural crisis. The debate over whether this famine constitutes genocide continues among historians. Some view it as a deliberate act of repression, while others see it as a tragic consequence of Soviet administrative failures. Some also argue that the Soviet actions, while harsh, do not qualify as genocide, suggesting the famine was part of a broader crisis affecting the USSR.
Regardless of the debate, this famine deeply influenced Ukrainian nationalist movements, driving some to align with Nazi Germany not out of ideological agreement but as a means to escape Soviet rule.
Many Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine hold strong pro-Russia sentiments. In Putin’s view, the shared language and Orthodox Christianity between Ukrainians and Russians prove they are one people. Ukraine’s pull toward the West vexed Putin, and when Ukraine decided to join NATO, alarm bells went off in the Kremlin. Why? You might ask. Well, let's talk about NATO for a minute. NATO was originally conceived as an opposing force to the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union was dissolved, NATO didn’t cease to exist. Instead, it turned its attention to the rising Islamic movements worldwide.
Contrary to popular belief, NATO did not promise Russia that it would stop expanding eastward. Verbal assurances were given, they were not formalized in a treaty. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev clarified that NATO enlargement was not discussed at the time, although he considered it a “big mistake” and a violation of earlier assurances.
If Ukraine joins NATO, it would bring Putin’s nightmare to his doorstep. Russia would be surrounded by hostile countries, posing an existential threat to the nation.
The Invasion of Crimea
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, a move influenced by several key factors:
Ethnic Russians' Protection: President Vladimir Putin stated that the annexation was necessary to protect ethnic Russians in Crimea from perceived threats by "far-right extremists" who, according to Russia, had overthrown Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych during the 2014 political upheaval in Ukraine.
Strategic Importance: Crimea holds significant strategic value due to its Black Sea coastline and naval bases, particularly the Black Sea Fleet stationed in Sevastopol. Control over these assets enhances Russia's military capabilities and secures its naval presence in the region.
Historical and Cultural Ties: Crimea has a long history of Russian influence, dating back centuries. Most of its population identifies with Russian culture and language, making it a region of substantial cultural and historical importance to Russia.
Political and Geopolitical Goals: The annexation allowed Russia to assert its regional influence, counter NATO’s expansion, and strengthen its strategic position in the Black Sea. This move responded to the 2014 Ukrainian political crisis events, which saw a shift in Ukraine's political alignment towards the West, including closer ties with NATO. From Moscow's perspective, this event was a geopolitical catastrophe, dramatically altering the balance of power in the region and intensifying Russia's actions in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine's decision to join NATO prompted Putin to act, fearing a threat to Russia's security. He already views Ukrainians and Russians as one people. Combine this with the strong possibility of his enemies establishing a presence at Russia's borders, and the result is an invasion. Some analysts argue that Western actions played a significant role in provoking the conflict with Ukraine. John J. Mearsheimer, a prominent political scientist, argues that the crisis largely stems from the West’s efforts to transform Ukraine into a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. While Vladimir Putin is responsible for invading Ukraine, Mearsheimer doesn’t view him as an expansionist bent on creating a greater Russia.
Current Scenario
So now you have a deadly war way into its third year and the situation on the battlefield is far from rosy for the Ukrainians. Russia is slowly but surely edging forward on the eastern front. Avdiivka, a former battlefield town is now under Russian Control. And on May 10, 2024, Russia attacked the Kharkiv Oblast, opening a new front to the north. While Ukrainian Soldiers have so far held the front, Russians are making small but significant gains. Ukraine’s much-hyped summer counter-offensive has failed, and tensions between Russia and NATO are higher than ever.
Current Scenario | Map by Institute for the Study of War
Currently, Ukrainian defenders are not allowed to strike inside Russian territory using weapons from NATO countries. But that may soon be changing. Ukraine may soon be using weapons from the West to strike deep into Russia. All of this while Putin has warned that if NATO doesn’t stop helping Ukraine and prolonging the war and if NATO weaponry is used to strike inside Russia, then he will authorize the usage of nuclear weapons. This could escalate into a global conflict, potentially leading to World War III.
Amidst the ongoing conflict, determining exact casualty figures is next to impossible. Western estimates suggest Ukrainian casualties are around 70,000, though some independent sources and Russians report these numbers to be between 124,500 and 131,000. Russian casualties are estimated at approximately 300,000 by chiefly Western sources, with other estimates ranging from 180,000 to 200,000. The disparity in these figures highlights the difficulties in obtaining precise data. It is also important to note that Russia, with a significantly larger population and military, outnumbers Ukrainian forces nearly three to one. While Ukraine has around 500,000 troops, including active-duty, reserve, and paramilitary, Russia’s forces total approximately 1,330,000, including those from paramilitary groups such as Wagner.
In addition, as of February 2024, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has verified 10,582 civilian deaths in Ukraine. The war has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, as thousands of Ukrainians have been internally displaced or have fled abroad in addition to the mentioned civilian deaths. Neighbouring Poland recorded the highest number of border crossings from Ukraine, at around 17.3 million as of December 2023, followed by Hungary, Romania, and Russia. These figures will sharply rise as the war drags on. And so far, it seems to be dragging on forever.
Geopolitical Implications
The war in Ukraine has reshaped the global geopolitical landscape. Europe has shown surprising unity in sanctioning Russia and supporting Ukraine. Finland, which shares a substantial border with Russia, and Sweden which had maintained its policy of “non-alignment in peace and neutrality in war” since the Napoleonic Wars are both now NATO members. On the other side, Russia has the covert support of China and open support of Iran, North Korea, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO): This group, formed after the Soviet Union’s fall, includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Other Countries have maintained non-alignment. Global security structures are being re-evaluated as the West rushes to provide military, logistic, and diplomatic support to Ukraine. NATO and Russia are so far avoiding a direct conflict with each other but as the war drags on, it might get harder and harder for NATO members to not intervene. For now, they are using sanctions as a weapon to contain Russia by crippling its economy. So far, The Western nations have imposed a whooping 16,500 sanctions on Russia. Despite these sanctions, the Russian economy has remained resilient. This is partly because of its relations with China. And partly because of the rise of shipping companies, insurers, and oil companies that do not answer to Western rules. Because of these reasons, Russia has managed to sell its oil and import necessary commodities to run the country and fuel its war. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil. So, the West cannot put in place a full oil embargo on it like it (USA) did on Iran. Doing so will significantly disrupt the global economy. And Russia still fuels Europe’s energy needs. It’s a humbling moment for the West and exposes the limits of its power.
Note: Data is through the third quarter of 2023.Source: Silverado Policy Accelerator, Global Trade Tracker, UN Comtrade, ASEANstats, and national statistics offices By Ashley Wu | From New York Times
Russia and Ukraine are significant exporters of wheat, sunflower oil, and maize. The war has disrupted the global food supply, causing a 40% increase in food prices since 2020, according to the World Food Program. You might have noticed this impact too. Things are costlier in your country partly due to the war in Ukraine. The majority of shipping from the black sea port is halted and many nutrient-deficient and developing countries, most of which are in Africa, are bearing the brunt of this. They may face a famine soon if a way is not figured out to move the containers from the black sea. Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo said at the recent Peace Summit in Switzerland that "Africa has been the greatest victim" of Russia's full-scale war. Rising food and energy prices will likely drive migrations from developing countries into developed ones. This is likely to increase right-wing sentiment in these developed states, a phenomenon already in motion. Economic instability has the potential to make governance challenging as it prompts civil unrest. And need I remind you that all this is coming against the backdrop of the COVID-19 Pandemic which has already put a significant strain on the world. We are now going through a period of inflation-recession paradox and we may be on the verge of a global recession driven by soaring rates in several countries. And the war in Ukraine is responsible for much of it. The World Bank has said that the “2024 Global Economy is set for the weakest half-decade performance in 30 years” in its January 2024 press release.
The recently concluded Peace Summit for Ukraine held in Switzerland, utterly failed to engage the Global South. Despite a large Turnout, it was a total Western affair. India, Indonesia, and Brazil did not sign the communique. They cited Russia’s absence from the summit as a chief factor. All three countries were represented not by their premiers or presidents, nor even by their foreign ministers but by officials sent by the said premiers/presidents in their stead.
World leaders at the peace summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Specifically, India not signing is a blow to Ukrainian efforts to engage the global south as it is considered to be one of the leaders of developing nations. India viewed the summit as a “pro-West and anti-Russia affair” according to Micheal Kugelman, the South Asia Institute Director at The Wilson Center. And India has always had a positive relationship with Russia. This was reiterated by India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar while Speaking shortly before Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's first-ever visit to India in March 2024. China straight out refused to attend the summit citing the absence of Russia as the reason. China said that any summit on peace in Ukraine is futile without the participation of both countries. In a nutshell, countries that signed the communique were already in the Ukrainian camp before the Summit.
Future Outlook and Conclusion
At the moment, there seems to be no end to this conflict. Many analysts like John Mearsheimer believe that the solution lies in letting Ukraine be a neutral state. And I agree with that. However, given the strategic interests of global powers, this seems unlikely for now. What is certain is that this conflict will continue to be bloody and devastating, especially for Ukrainians. Putin and NATO are both unrelenting in their efforts to win this war. You would be surprised to know that Putin once wanted to join NATO and approached the then-American President Bill Clinton with the proposal but the president declined after talking to the people in his administration and NATO. Had Russia joined NATO, the world would be very different today.
All we can do now is observe and speculate as the dangerous cloud of Nuclear Conflict looms larger than ever over the globe.
P.S. This is the first article in a series where I'll discuss all the interesting geopolitical stuff happening worldwide. I conducted thorough research to ensure that only credible information is included in this article. Sources are provided in the bibliography for independent verification. Any error, inaccuracy, or bias that may have crept into this article should be considered a human error. I hope you finished your coffee and now are well-informed on this topic. If you enjoyed this article, consider subscribing to my Substack for more in-depth geopolitical analysis. That will motivate me to keep writing meticulously researched, abundantly knowledgeable, and engaging articles for you.
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