NATO in Romania: The Black Sea Flank
This article was reposted with permission from Eagle Eye Explore.
THE MIHAIL KOGĂLNICEANU AIR BASE
Located near the port city of Constanța in Romania, on the western coast of the Black Sea, Mihail Kogălniceanu International Airport welcomes tourists numbering, on average, around 150,000 every year. These visitors, both Romanian and foreign alike, arrive at this scenic location to experience and enjoy the famous, vibrant beaches of this popular coastal region. However, since 1955, one sector of the airport has served a much less luxurious purpose – that of a military air base, itself officially named the 57th Air Base (more commonly known as the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base) of the Romanian Air Force. It is also home to the Romanian 572nd Helicopter Squadron. In turn, since 1999, the MK Air Base has also served as a home to a more permanent foreign presence – the United States Air Force, as part of a permanent NATO mission. Although the MK Air Base currently maintains a force of approximately 4,500 US military personnel, the commander of the air base is still a Romanian one – Commander Nicolae Crețu. This is in contrast to another large NATO military base, Camp Bondsteel – located in the disputed Serbian province of Kosovo – which is under the control of the US military. Romania’s MK Air Base also houses the US Army Garrison Black Sea and the Army Support Group Black Sea.
While MK Air Base has long served as one of the most important NATO military bases in Europe, earlier this year, its importance to the military alliance significantly increased following the beginning of large-scale construction at the site, aimed at expanding the base to eventually become the largest NATO air base in Europe, overtaking the current largest, Ramstein Air Base, located in Germany. It has been estimated that, once completed, the expanded MK Air Base will serve as home to over 10,000 NATO personnel, not including their families, who will also be housed at the air base indefinitely (initial plans were for the base to eventually host over 50,000 NATO personnel). But why exactly is NATO expanding the MK Air Base now, after serving as a major hub of US-NATO activity for 25 years now? As is the case with most new NATO plans in Europe, there is but one answer – Russia.
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the beginning of the War in the Donbass that same year, Eastern European and NATO fears surrounding the potential of increased Russian military activity outside of Ukraine rose to levels not seen since the Cold War. NATO member states bordering Russia and situated along the Black Sea coast were especially concerned, given their immediate geographical proximity to Russia and its powerful military forces. Between 2014 and 2021, NATO plans for an increased presence in Eastern Europe, in order to deter any further potential military actions by Russia, were mostly limited to simply an increase in military personnel and large-scale organised war games. However, following its formal approval in 2019 by the Romanian Government, in 2021, the €2 billion project to expand the MK Air Base was launched. In terms of area size, it has been estimated that the expanded MK Air Base will be approximately 6,900 acres/2,800 hectares, making it the largest NATO air base in Europe. The continuation of its status as a permanent NATO military base has also been ensured.
It must be noted, however, that while the expansion of the MK Air Base will prove to be a major step towards a stronger NATO presence in Romania and Southeastern/Eastern Europe in general, it must also be taken into account that the current expansion project has been split into four separate phases, which are to be collectively completed within approximately 20 years. This means that the expansion of the MK Air Base will likely not be completed until around 2044. By this time, it is extremely unclear as to whether or not NATO and Russia will have already entered a state of open conflict before then, if said war will even be won by NATO or Russia, or if the overall geopolitical and geostrategic landscape of the world will even allow for the MK Air Base to serve its initial purpose for NATO by the 2040s.
As one would have expected, the expansion of the MK Air Base has not been ignored by Russia. In March, Russian officials have made it very clear that they view the expansion of the MK Air Base as a threat to Russia. In turn, some Russian officials have also expressed sentiment and rhetoric which can only be interpreted as direct threats to Romania. Andrey Klimov, Deputy Chairman of the [Russian] Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs, stated that the expansion of the MK Air Base is a “threat for Bucharest”, and even directly threatened Romania by stating that the air base will be “more likely to be among the first targets for retaliatory strikes.” The implication of Klimov’s threats, however – through the usage of the word “retaliatory” – is that Russia would only strike the MK Air Base if NATO were to somehow attack Russia first. However, even implications can be very dangerous, especially if they come from the mouths of state officials as important and high-ranking as Klimov
The Russian factor in the expansion of the MK Air Base has long been known and made public by the Romanian Government and Armed Forces. Speaking to Television Romania earlier this year, geopolitical expert and analyst Dorin Popescu stated that the MK Air Base will become “the most important permanent NATO military structure in the immediate vicinity of the conflict in Ukraine…” This statement is significant, because it has been most commonly accepted that the most important NATO bases around the borders of Ukraine are located in the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – but if Romania is truly to become the host country of the new largest NATO military base in Europe, then its geostrategic and military importance will increase dramatically for both NATO and Russia. NATO – and, by extension, Ukraine – will see an expanded MK Air Base as a crucial launchpad for NATO reconnaissance aircraft conducting operations around the Black Sea region and close to the airspaces of both Ukraine and Russia, in support of both NATO’s and Ukraine’s security. In turn, Russia will view the expanded MK Air Base as yet another NATO threat to its own military and geostrategic ambitions in Ukraine (and, potentially, beyond), as such a large expansion to a NATO air base so close to Russian (maritime) borders would also very likely mean a significant increase to NATO air reconnaissance missions and the presence of UAVs and piloted NATO aircraft over the Black Sea, including Russia’s own maritime territory there. It should also be noted that Romania has maritime space in the Black Sea amounting to approximately 30,000 square kilometres. Ultimately, one of Russia’s biggest concerns surrounding the expansion of the MK Air Base is the suspected presence of Ukrainian-piloted F-16 fighter jets, taking off from air bases located in NATO member states – such as Romania – for combat operations against Russian forces in Ukraine and the five Russian-annexed regions of Crimea, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk. There has also been much suspicion that such Ukrainian airborne combat operations from NATO air bases such as MK Air Base could also eventually take place in the skies over pre-war Russian territory. There has also been concerns and fears both in Russia and among anti-war activists in the West that NATO pilots could even fly F-16s from NATO territory themselves, on behalf of Ukraine, to take part in combat operations against Russian forces, thereby potentially bringing NATO and Russia into open conflict, if such a scenario were to take place (or confirmed, if such things have already taken place, outside of public knowledge).
THE RISK OF NATO VS RUSSIA WAR
Speaking to news outlet Euractiv earlier on this year, Colonel Corneliu Pavel, Head of the Press Office of the Romanian Ministry of National Defence, expanded upon the role that Romania plays in the NATO-Russia proxy war that is the conflict in Ukraine:
Romania has demonstrated in recent years that it is also a security provider for NATO allies. Changes in the Black Sea security architecture have been visible…It is an area plagued by conflicts generated by the Russian Federation. The security situation is very volatile. Sea mines have drifted and can drift at any time. So far, 97 sea mines have been destroyed and the Romanian Naval Forces have destroyed five…
While it can be debated whether or not Russia deliberately dropped sea mines into the Black Sea for the purpose of them drifting into NATO territorial waters and potentially damaging NATO ships as a result, what cannot be argued is that NATO does indeed have the right to destroy any and all foreign military weaponry and equipment that violates its land, sea and airspace. As with the sea mines in the Black Sea, there have been several instances of Russian missiles and drones either flying over (albeit very briefly) or even hitting NATO territory. Specifically, Russian missiles have previously – again, very briefly – violated Polish airspace during airborne attacks against Western Ukrainian towns and cities, such as Lviv, and Russian missiles and drones have previously – and accidentally – hit the Romanian side of the Romania-Ukraine border. As expected, such incidents have sparked much debate between Ukrainian and Western officials and activists alike over whether or not NATO should trigger Article 5, following these violations – accidental or not – of NATO territory. According to Article 5, NATO member states have the right to take military action against any state that attacks a NATO member state, as part of the alliance’s collective security charter – “an attack on one is an attack on all”. Article 5 has only ever been triggered once, following the 9/11 attacks in 2001 against the United States. However, in the case of Russian missiles and drones briefly violating NATO airspace, or even accidentally hitting NATO territory, it has been argued that these incidents alone are simply not severe enough to warrant collective NATO military action against Russia, due to such incidents being either accidental in nature or simply not threatening enough to the alliance to justify sparking open conflict with Russia and risking the beginning of a Third World War, thus putting millions of lives at risk.
There also exists in Romania NATO infrastructure that provides training for both ground troops and even pilots from Ukraine, as well as trainees from other NATO member states. Ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February 2022, significant numbers of Ukrainian military personnel were trained by both Romanian and foreign NATO instructors in various training facilities and sites across Romania. In November 2023, the European Pilot Training Centre for F-16s was set up at the Romanian Air Force 86th Air Base, near the town of Fetești in Ialomița County in Southeastern Romania. This is particularly concerning for Russia, as Ukraine has long desired numerous F-16 fighter jets from Western nations, in order to strengthen the much-depleted Ukrainian Air Force’s presence in the skies, which are currently dominated by the far larger and stronger Russian Air Force. We have spoken previously in this article about the use of Ukrainian – and, potentially, NATO – pilots flying F-16s in combat operations over Ukraine and behind pre-war Russian lines, but something else that concerns both Russia and NATO is the risk of Russia deciding that by allowing F-16s to take off from NATO air bases for combat operations against Russian forces, this also means that NATO has effectively become a direct participant in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and, as such, even NATO military sites beyond the borders of Ukraine could be considered to be viable targets for future Russian attacks. As one would expect, this is an extremely dangerous scenario, as it would inevitably mean that Russia and NATO would eventually be brought into open conflict against one another, potentially even leading to the outbreak of a Third World War, risking the lives of millions across Europe, and even beyond, if other theatres of war across the globe were to open up in turn as a result.
ROMANIA’S MILITARY CAPABILITIES & ITS ROLE IN NATO
In the event of a war of any kind – not just involving Russia – foreign NATO personnel in Romania numbers at roughly 5,000 and include military personnel from member states such as the US, Spain, France and Poland. As far as the Romanian Armed Forces goes, the number of active military personnel numbers at around 72,000, with reservist numbers at around 55,000. However, if Romania were to end up participating in a war of any kind that could potentially put Romania’s statehood at risk, the number of potential military personnel fighting for Romania in such a war could amount to as high as 11,000,000, across all three branches of the Romanian Armed Forces – Army, Navy and Air Force. When taking into account that the total population of Romania numbers at around 20,000,000, having over half of the national population mobilised to fight a war – armed with modern NATO weaponry and equipment – is a likelihood that should not be dismissed by any faction that could potentially end up having Romania as a wartime opponent. There is also the psychological factor, as patriotic sentiment in Romania is extremely high – as is the case among Ukrainians and Russians also – and given Romania’s military history during the Second World War fighting against both Ukrainians and Russians, when the latter two were part of the Soviet Union, national memory also serves as a powerful psychological factor that will undoubtedly also play a role in any potential scenario where Romania and Russia come into conflict once again.
In terms of naval weaponry and equipment, the Romanian Navy has in active service 1 submarine, 3 frigates, 4 corvettes, 3 missile corvettes, 3 fast attack craft, 6 mine warfare ships, 3 river monitors, 5 gunboats and 14 patrol boats. In terms of air force weaponry and equipment, the Romanian Air Force has in active service 26 F-16 combat aircraft, 2 Antonov An-30 reconnaissance aircraft, 1 Antonov An-26, 7 C-27J Spartans, 8 C-130 Hercules and 57 IAR 330 helicopters (22 used as gunships).
As we can see, Romania alone is quite well-prepared for conflict, in terms of manpower, weaponry and equipment, and its geographical position with the Black Sea to the east and other NATO allies to its south and north (Serbia to the west is not a NATO member state) makes Romania very much capable of establishing effective defences if war ever came to its borders. The fact that Romania is also a NATO member state also means that it has plenty of allied support on hand. Due to these numerous factors, Romania alone – and not just as a part of NATO – is certainly not a country to be underestimated militarily. Unlike Ukraine, which, prior to 2014, was very much underdeveloped militarily and only started slowly modernising its own armed forces (largely due to Western aid) following the Russian annexation of Crimea, Romania has had 20 years as a NATO member state, since its accession into the alliance in 2004, to improve and modernise its own armed forces, and currently has time to further make improvements to its military readiness, in the face of the ever-present potential for a conflict against Russia. Ultimately, however, it is not just Romania that will benefit from these developments. NATO as a whole will benefit from having a base of operations in a member state that directly borders Ukraine and Russia. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland already provide such strong geographical and geostrategic positions for NATO deployments via land, whereas Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey provide such positions for NATO via the Black Sea. It will enable NATO to quickly and effectively mobilise its forces in the event of any military escalation with Russia, as well as provide Romania in turn with far stronger security guarantees than the alliance could ever be able to provide Ukraine, since the latter is not a NATO member state.
As mentioned before, however, being a NATO member state does not automatically mean that Romania is fully protected from coming into conflict with Russia. Due to the increasing levels of military support for Ukraine – which also includes the aforementioned permitting of Ukrainian-piloted F-16s to take off from air bases in NATO member states and the presence of NATO reconnaissance UAVs over the Black Sea – Russia will not rule out the possibility of potentially striking against Romania in the event that the two nations clash militarily. With the existing problem of Russian missiles and drones accidentally hitting Romanian territory, coupled with the ongoing issue of the unrecognised Russian-majority region of Transnistria in Moldova – itself facing growing public calls for reunification with Romania – there are several existing factors as play which could very well lead to Romania once against fighting Russia in an open conflict, if current geopolitical trends continue.
Ultimately, however, for the time being, all Romania and NATO can do is watch and wait, as Ukrainian defences continue to slowly crumble and Russian forces continue to increase the speed and intensity of their offensives not only in the Donbass, but perhaps soon in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions as well, if current rumours are to be believed. For Romania, full Russian control over Kherson especially carries with it the very real and likely possibility that the Ukrainian regions of Mykolaiv and Odessa – and, in turn, Snake Island once again – will also come under Russian attack, bringing the Russo-Ukrainian War, quite literally, to the borders of Romania and NATO itself. As things stand at the moment, however, Russia does not appear to show any sign of slowing down or weakening, and this should serve as a reminder to NATO as a whole to not underestimate the power of Russia when it goes on the offensive, no matter how far the war appears to be from NATO borders as of now.